On the Club Convergence in China’s Provincial Coal Consumptions: Evidence from a Nonlinear Time-Varying Factor Model

Coal has been the fundamental energy source supporting China’s supply and consumption. This paper examines convergence clubs for per capita coal consumption among 30 provinces of China between 1997 2019 by means a nonlinear time-varying factor model. Meanwhile, ordered probit model is further used to identify causes affecting convergence. The results analyses data strongly support existence clubs, indicating that there are four one divergence group at interprovincial level. Among factors potentially influence provincial consumption, GDP-per capital, industrial structure, intensity environment regulations carbon emissions positively related while investment in fixed assets, degree openness outside world technological progress negatively Increases enhance odds belonging high club. reduce consumptions These findings help policy makers set production targets different regions differences across regions.